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2025-26 NBA Preseason Win Projections

Proven Success Year After Year

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Contest Winner

Winner of the 2022-23 and 2024-25 Win Projections Contests on the renowned APBR Message Boards.

The APBR Message Board wins projection contest is a long-standing forum tradition where analysts and metric-driven systems compete to predict NBA team wins before the season begins.

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Undefeated

Undefeated in head-to-head matchups (17-0) over the last three seasons against top advanced stats systems:

  • DARKO
  • LEBRON
  • RAPTOR (538)
  • numberFire
  • ESPN BPI
  • Kevin Pelton
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Beat Vegas

82% winning percentage (9-2) against Vegas when our projection diverges by 5+ wins (LOCKS!)

63.5% winning percentage against Vegas when our projection diverges by 1+ wins (no toss-ups)

47-27 record â€ĸ 21.25% ROI

How Our Projections Work

Our projections use the multiyear, predictive version of Crafted Plus Minus to forecast each team's performance. Each outlook includes projected records, offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.

Last updated: Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Our Projection
61
Vegas Line
62.5
Off Rtg
118.5
Def Rtg
108.6
Net Rtg
9.9
Our Projection
56
Vegas Line
56.5
Off Rtg
118.9
Def Rtg
112.3
Net Rtg
6.6
Our Projection
53
Vegas Line
47.5
Off Rtg
116.3
Def Rtg
110.8
Net Rtg
5.5
Our Projection
50
Vegas Line
46.5
Off Rtg
116.3
Def Rtg
111.7
Net Rtg
4.6
#5 + 26 More

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Get access to complete rankings, advanced metrics, and detailed analysis for every NBA team.

See projections for all 30 teams with full offensive/defensive ratings and Vegas comparisons.