Comprehensive analysis of NBA Draft performance from 2010-2025. Explore GM rankings, draft classes, and discover which teams consistently find value in the draft.
Data-driven analysis ranking every NBA General Manager by draft success from 2010-2020. Discover which GMs consistently find value, avoid poor picks, and build championship-caliber rosters through the draft.
Dive deep into 16 years of draft analysis with our machine learning-powered rankings. Compare our projections against actual NBA outcomes and see how each draft class stacks up historically.
Browse every NBA Draft from 2010-2025. Click on any year to see detailed analysis, player performance, and draft outcomes.
We've spent over a decade perfecting our draft evaluation system. Here's how our projections stack up against NBA teams' actual draft decisions when measured by long-term player success.
The Test: We compared our pre-draft rankings against NBA teams' actual draft selections using career VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) through 2025 as the success metric. VORP measures a player's total contribution relative to a replacement-level player—essentially answering "how much better is this player than someone you could easily replace them with?"
Why These Years: We chose 2010-2019 because these players have had sufficient time (at least 6 seasons) to establish their NBA careers, making VORP assessments reliable. More recent drafts would be premature to evaluate.
What We Measured: Three key metrics that matter most for draft success—how well rankings predict career value, accuracy of those predictions, and ability to identify the truly elite prospects.
What it means: Correlation measures how well rankings predict career success. Higher is better.
Why it matters: Our rankings have a 12.6% stronger relationship with career VORP than NBA draft positions, meaning we're better at identifying which prospects will actually succeed.
Real impact: When we rank a player higher, they're more likely to have a better career than when NBA teams draft them higher.
What it means: Average difference between where we/NBA ranked a player and where they ended up in career VORP among their draft class.
Why it matters: We're 2.2 positions more accurate on average—this compounds significantly across an entire draft.
Real impact: If we rank someone 10th and NBA teams draft them 15th, we're more likely to be closer to their actual career ranking.
What it means: Percentage of our top 10 ranked prospects who became top 10 in career VORP within their draft class.
Why it matters: Finding elite talent in the top 10 is crucial—these picks often define franchises for decades.
Real impact: We correctly identify elite prospects 16% more often than NBA teams' draft positions suggest.
Methodology: Career VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) through 2025 season was used to rank players by actual career success. Our draft rankings were compared against both actual NBA draft positions and career VORP rankings to measure predictive accuracy. Higher correlation values and lower ranking errors indicate better projection quality.
See Full Methodology Details